Saturday, May 08, 2010

The Perils Of Predictions

As the smoke-filled rooms of Westminster bear witness to horse-trading, ego-massaging, discarded pledges & furtive text messages ( ), it's worth revisiting what was predicted or posited during the election campaign.
A week and a half prior to polling day Ian Hernon rushed off a piece for the Oldham Echo, claiming that the Tories hoped to do well in a handful of local seats ( ).
To be fair, Hernon didn't claim that the Tories realistically expected to win the seats mentioned (Liverpool Riverside, Sefton Central, Wallasey & Garston & Halewood). However, the piece talked-up Tory prospects without any supporting quotes or statistics.
For the record:
Riverside:- Labour: 22,998, Lib Dem: 8,825, Tory: 4,243, Green: 1,355, BNP: 706, UKIP: 674.
Sefton Central:- Labour: 20,307, Tory: 16,445, Lib Dem: 9,656, UKIP: 2,055.
Wallasey:-Labour: 21,578, Tory: 13,071, Lib Dem: 5,693, UKIP: 1,205, Independent: 107.
Garston & Halewood:- Labour: 25,493, Lib Dem: 8,616, Tory: 6,908, UKIP: 1,540, Respect: 268.

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